Consumer Confidence Index Statistics: Key Data, Trends & Insights

Consumer confidence index statistics for 2026 from the Conference Board, University of Michigan, and Federal Reserve. The CCI reached a 12-year low of 84.5 in January 2026. Learn how low confidence periods drive better deal conditions for savvy shoppers.

When the Conference Board reported that US consumer confidence dropped to 84.5 in January 2026, the lowest reading in 12 years, financial news sites scrambled to ask the same question: are Americans about to stop spending? The answer, as a Federal Reserve study published just months earlier discovered, is more complicated than a single index reading suggests. Consumers feel worse about the economy than the data warrants. And yet the credit cards keep getting swiped.

This article compiles the latest consumer confidence index statistics from the Conference Board, the University of Michigan, the Federal Reserve, OECD, and academic researchers. The focus: what current readings actually mean for shoppers making real decisions.

What Is the Consumer Confidence Index? An Overview

The Consumer Confidence Index, or CCI, measures how optimistic or pessimistic US households feel about current and future economic conditions. One number. Massive implications for everyone from Walmart buyers planning inventory to Federal Reserve economists deciding whether to cut rates.

The CCI started in 1967, benchmarked to 1985=100. When the index sits above 100, households generally feel good about jobs and personal finances. Below 100, the mood shifts. The headline number covers two very different components: how people feel right now (Present Situation Index) and what they expect six months from now (Expectations Index). Those two can tell completely opposite stories at the same time.

Why does it matter who’s watching? Manufacturers adjust production runs based on CCI data. Retailers plan promotional calendars around it. Banks price consumer credit differently when confidence softens. And retailers running coupon and discount campaigns know that low-confidence periods tend to drive more aggressive deal-seeking from shoppers.

The two primary US indexes aren’t identical. The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers uses a different methodology, a different scale (indexed to 1966:Q1=100), and surveys a smaller sample of 500+ adults monthly. Both indexes often diverge. The UNC Kenan Institute noted in 2024 that the two surveys tell a “more nuanced story” than a single headline suggests. Part of that divergence comes down to methodology differences between them.

How the Consumer Confidence Index Is Calculated

The Conference Board’s CCI is built from five survey questions asked monthly to 5,000 US households. The methodology is more structured than most people realize.

The scoring formula is relative: each question’s result is calculated as positive responses divided by positive plus negative responses. That ratio gets compared to the same ratio from the 1985 baseline year. So when the report says “91.2,” the number means households feel 91.2% as confident as they did on average during 1985. Not a great comparison, given 1985 was a pretty ordinary year for the US economy.

The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers takes a different approach. Researchers conduct 500+ monthly phone interviews using 50 core questions. The final Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) combines a Current Economic Conditions index with a Consumer Expectations index, using 1966:Q1=100 as the baseline. The two measures often correlate but not always. When they diverge significantly, it’s usually worth asking why.

Current Consumer Confidence Index Statistics

The Conference Board CCI stood at 91.2 in February 2026, up 2.2 points from January’s 12-year low of 84.5. That partial recovery masked ongoing weakness underneath.

Here’s what the split tells you. The Present Situation Index at 120.0 says consumers think things are fine right now. Jobs exist, income is flowing. But the Expectations Index at 72.0 says those same consumers expect things to get worse over the next six months. That gap between “today is okay” and “tomorrow looks rough” has been widening since mid-2024.

The University of Michigan published a preliminary March 2026 reading of 55.5 for the Index of Consumer Sentiment, with Current Economic Conditions at 57.8 and Consumer Expectations at 54.1. The final March number came in at 53.3. Both figures sit well below what most economists consider healthy territory.

Inflation and trade policy uncertainty dominated the reasons cited by survey respondents. These aren’t abstract concerns: consumers who’ve watched grocery prices stay stubbornly elevated for two-plus years don’t need an economic model to feel uncertain.

Historical Consumer Confidence Index Data and Trends

The CCI’s historical record runs over 70 years for the Michigan index and nearly 60 years for the Conference Board. That long track record reveals patterns that single-year comparisons miss.

The table below shows recent monthly CCI and Michigan Sentiment readings from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series for the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers:

Source: University of Michigan via Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), series UMCSENT.

The 2022 collapse stands out as the modern reference point for how bad consumer sentiment can get. June 2022’s reading of 50.0 came as US inflation hit 9.1%, the highest in 40 years. The current trajectory, while not yet at that extreme, is moving in a similar direction driven by similar forces: persistent price increases and uncertainty about whether conditions will improve.

The Conference Board CCI’s own historical pattern shows volatility around major events: the dot-com bust brought the index from near 145 to below 80 in two years. The 2008 financial crisis pushed it into the 20s and 30s. By comparison, the current decline from 112.8 to the mid-80s looks moderate on a historical chart. But the sustained nature of the decline matters more than its depth.

Consumer Confidence by Demographic: Age, Income, and Generation

The aggregate CCI reading hides dramatic variation across generations, income brackets, and political affiliations. The demographic splits in early 2026 are among the most extreme in the survey’s history.

The Boomer vs. Gen Z gap is striking. Conference Board data from September 2025 shows Baby Boomers report a job market differential nearly seven times higher than Gen Z. For Boomers, jobs look plentiful because many are already in established careers or retired. For Gen Z, the job market feels tighter, entry-level roles are competitive, and wages haven’t kept pace with the cost of the lifestyle they’re entering.

The political split is equally pronounced. When identical economic conditions produce a Present Situation reading of 160.5 for one group and 107.9 for another, the index is measuring perception as much as reality. Both groups live in the same economy. Their different readings tell you how much political context shapes economic feelings.

Income matters too. Lower-income households under $50,000 turned net negative on their economic outlook in late 2025. These consumers are the most price-sensitive group in any market. They’re the ones most likely to change behavior when confidence drops. That means trading down to cheaper brands, cutting discretionary spending, and hunting much harder for deals before buying.

Consumer Confidence and Recession Prediction: What the Data Shows

The Expectations Index crossing below 80 is the CCI’s primary recession warning signal. As of February 2026, that threshold has been breached for 13 or more consecutive months.

But there’s a big caveat. The recession signal has been flashing for over a year while GDP growth stayed positive at roughly 2-3% in 2025. Researchers at the Harvard Belfer Center noted in April 2025 that Michigan Consumer Sentiment is a useful leading indicator. But the post-pandemic period has weakened that relationship. The gap between what people say and what they do has never been wider.

Here’s where it gets complicated. The classic recession-prediction model assumed consumers would cut spending when confidence dropped. That assumption held from the 1970s through 2019. Post-pandemic, it hasn’t. Consumers are reporting their worst sentiment readings in years while still spending at rates that support GDP growth. The CCI may be predicting the vibes of a recession. Not an actual one.

The Advisor Perspectives tracking of Conference Board data shows US confidence has been below the historical pre-recession average of 101.9 since February 2025 with no recession materializing. That’s not proof the signal is broken. It’s proof the relationship has become noisier.

The Spending-Sentiment Paradox: Why Americans Keep Buying Despite Low Confidence

A Federal Reserve study published in April 2025 found something researchers had suspected but now confirmed with hard data: US consumers are buying more than their stated confidence levels would predict.

The Federal Reserve’s FEDS Notes study is blunt about what’s happening. Consumers aren’t just pessimistic about abstract economic conditions. They’re telling survey researchers that things are bad for them personally. But when researchers checked those same respondents’ actual spending records, the data told a different story. People say they can’t afford things and then buy them anyway.

Part of this is inflation psychology. The Fed study found that consumers consistently overestimate how much inflation they’ve actually experienced. A household that’s actually faced $200/month more in grocery and gas costs might feel like they’ve taken on $500/month in extra burden. That distorted perception drives down sentiment readings without reflecting what’s actually happening to spending power.

Tracking deals across thousands of stores, a pattern keeps showing up that fits this research. When consumer confidence drops and the economy feels uncertain, search traffic for coupon codes and discount pages spikes, but actual purchases don’t disappear. Shoppers get more deliberate about where they spend. They want the same items; they just want them at a lower price. Low CCI often means more promotional pressure from retailers, which means better deals for consumers who know where to look.

The same dynamic played out in the 1970s-early 1980s during the last extended period of inflation-driven pessimism. Sentiment crashed, but consumer spending never collapsed to match.

Retail Spending Data: How CCI Correlates with Consumer Purchases

Consumer spending drives roughly 65% of US GDP. When that spending stays resilient despite low confidence readings, it creates both economic puzzles and practical opportunities.

The October 2025 data point is worth noting. The CCI popped to 121.2 in October, and retail activity followed. That correlation works, just not consistently. The National Retail Federation is projecting 4.4% growth for the full year, even with confidence at historically weak levels. That reinforces what the Fed study found. The relationship between CCI and actual spending has loosened.

So what does this mean practically? Retailers know that consumers are spending even when they say they won’t. That knowledge shapes promotional strategy. When confidence is low, the playbook shifts to get shoppers off the fence: steeper discounts, extended sale windows, more aggressive email promotions, and broader coupon distribution. The DontPayFull platform processes coupon data from thousands of stores. The pattern is clear: low-confidence periods drive higher promotional activity from retailers trying to convert hesitant shoppers.

What Low Consumer Confidence Means for Shoppers

Here’s the practical translation of everything above. Low CCI isn’t just a number on a chart. For deal-seekers, it creates specific market conditions worth understanding.

Research from Prosper Insights & Analytics published in July 2024 found that 26% of US adults are using more coupons directly because of economic uncertainty. That’s not a marginal increase. Three in five US consumers are actively looking for promotional codes when shopping online, a fundamental shift in how most people approach purchases.

What most guides miss is the flip side of this equation. When consumers become more coupon-conscious, retailers respond. Stores that previously relied on full-price sales shift promotional budgets, launch more sitewide events, and extend discount windows to capture spending from more cautious shoppers. The result: the current low-CCI environment has, somewhat paradoxically, created better deal conditions than a high-CCI environment where retailers can sell at full price more easily.

The income-stratified data makes this even more specific. Lower-income consumers are the most price-sensitive group in the current environment, they’re also the ones for whom a 15-20% discount has the largest practical impact. For shoppers in that bracket, staying on top of current deals across major retailers isn’t optional, it’s how household budgets survive when confidence is low and prices stay high.

From processing millions of coupon requests, we’ve observed that search activity for discount codes tends to climb in the weeks following a sharply negative CCI release. Consumers who read the news, feel more anxious about spending, and then look for ways to make purchases they need anyway without feeling like they’re being reckless. Coupons become the psychological permission slip that reconciles pessimism with necessity.

You can check current deals from major retailers on DontPayFull, or use our DontPayFull extension to automatically test available codes at checkout without having to manually search.

Global Consumer Confidence Index Statistics

The US CCI doesn’t exist in isolation. The OECD publishes a composite Consumer Confidence Index for member countries that uses a standardized amplitude-adjusted methodology, making international comparisons more meaningful than direct index comparisons.

The OECD data via FRED shows the US composite measure trending upward in early 2026 after bottoming in November 2025. The OECD’s amplitude-adjusted methodology smooths short-term volatility. That’s why the absolute numbers look different from the Conference Board’s 91.2 headline. Both indexes are measuring the same shift in sentiment, just through different lenses.

Low consumer confidence isn’t uniquely American. Multiple major economies have been navigating their own post-pandemic sentiment hangovers. Asia-Pacific markets recovered faster. Partly because their inflation cycles differed, but also because their consumer sentiment indexes started from different baseline conditions.

Methodology

The DontPayFull Research Team compiled this article using publicly available data from government agencies, academic institutions, and industry research organizations. All statistics are cited with their primary sources.

A note on data currency. Consumer confidence surveys are published monthly with minimal lag. The Conference Board releases CCI data within days of survey completion. The University of Michigan publishes preliminary readings mid-month with final readings by month-end. As of March 2026, the most current Conference Board data covers February 2026, and the most current Michigan Surveys data covers March 2026 (preliminary and final). OECD composite data lags by 1-2 months. FRED series UMCSENT is updated as new Michigan data is published. Government survey data from the Federal Reserve SHED covers the 2024 survey year (released May 2025) and reflects the latest available annual data at time of writing.

Primary data sources: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey (monthly, since 1967). University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers (monthly, since November 1952, via FRED series UMCSENT). OECD Composite Leading Indicators via FRED (series USACSCICP02STSAM). Federal Reserve Board FEDS Notes (2025).

Secondary sources: Federal Reserve Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED, 2024, n=12,000+), conducted October 2024, released May 2025. Philadelphia Fed LIFE Survey (April 2025). Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary (2025). Advisor Perspectives Conference Board tracking. Brookings Institution analysis of consumer sentiment. UNC Kenan Institute expert roundtable (2024). National Retail Federation consumer behavior surveys. Prosper Insights data for NRF (July 2024).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is considered a good Consumer Confidence Index number?

For the Conference Board CCI (1985=100), readings above 100 generally indicate consumers feel optimistic about current economic conditions. Readings in the 110-130 range signal solid confidence, as seen in mid-2021 and late 2024. Below 80 is widely considered a warning zone, particularly when the Expectations sub-index falls below 80, which has historically preceded recessions. For the OECD composite measure (long-term average=100), the same 100 threshold applies.

How often is the Consumer Confidence Index updated?

The Conference Board releases its CCI on the last Tuesday of every month at 10am Eastern Time. The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers releases a preliminary reading mid-month and a final reading at month-end. Both provide monthly frequency data.

What is the difference between the CCI and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index?

Both measure consumer optimism, but the methods differ. The Conference Board surveys 5,000 households, focusing on employment and business conditions. Michigan surveys 500+ adults using 50 questions about personal finances, buying conditions, and economic expectations. Michigan dates to 1952 (baseline: 1966:Q1=100). The Conference Board started in 1967 using 1985=100. They often move together but can diverge, especially during politically charged periods when partisanship shapes how people interpret economic conditions.

How does the Consumer Confidence Index affect interest rates?

The Federal Reserve monitors CCI trends as part of its broader economic assessment. When confidence drops sharply, it signals potential consumer spending weakness, which can support arguments for rate cuts to stimulate the economy. When confidence is high and spending is strong, it can support rate holds or increases to prevent overheating. The relationship isn’t direct or formulaic, but CCI data is part of the Fed’s regular economic dashboard.

What factors cause consumer confidence to go up or down?

Employment conditions are the primary driver. When jobs are plentiful and wages are rising, confidence tends to climb. Inflation is the main depressant in the current cycle. Sustained high prices, even if moderating, keep confidence depressed because consumers anchor to the cumulative price increases they’ve experienced rather than the current inflation rate. Stock market performance, housing prices, interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty all play secondary roles.

Can consumer confidence predict a recession?

Historically, yes. The Expectations Index falling below 80 has preceded recessions in most post-1980 cycles, and the average CCI at recession starts has been 101.9. But the post-pandemic era has complicated this relationship. The Federal Reserve’s 2025 research found the correlation between stated sentiment and actual spending behavior has weakened significantly. The current period of sub-80 Expectations readings with GDP growth intact is a case study in that divergence.

How does consumer confidence affect retail sales and stock markets?

Retail sales tend to follow CCI with a 1-3 month lag in normal cycles. When confidence drops, retailers see softer discretionary spending first, then potentially even staples if confidence stays low. Stock markets react to CCI releases because investor expectations about consumer spending drive earnings estimates. A sharply negative CCI can trigger sell-offs in consumer discretionary sectors, while a surprise positive reading can boost retail and consumer stocks. The spending-sentiment paradox documented by the Fed means this relationship has also become less predictable in recent years.

Data compiled by the DontPayFull Research Team based on publicly available data from government agencies, academic institutions, and industry research firms.

Sources

1. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey: Primary source for CCI monthly readings, sub-indexes, demographic breakdowns (2026)
2. University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers: Primary source for Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index monthly readings (2026)
3. FRED UMCSENT Series – Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Historical Michigan Consumer Sentiment time series data (1952-2026)
4. FRED USACSCICP02STSAM – OECD US Composite CCI: OECD amplitude-adjusted consumer confidence for the United States (2025-2026)
5. Federal Reserve FEDS Notes – Tracking Consumer Sentiment vs. Verified Retail Purchases: Study linking stated sentiment to verified spending behavior, n=10,000 (April 2025)
6. Federal Reserve Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED): Annual household financial health survey, n=12,000+ (2024)
7. Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary – Forecasting US Recessions: Regional economic sentiment as recession predictor (2025)
8. Brookings Institution – The Predictive Power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment: Foundational econometric analysis of ICS predictive validity
9. Advisor Perspectives – Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index: Tracking pre-recession CCI averages and threshold analysis (2025)
10. Harvard Belfer Center – How to Forecast a Recession: Consumer sentiment as recession leading indicator analysis (April 2025)
11. UNC Kenan Institute – Consumer Sentiment vs. Economic Indicators: Expert roundtable on UM vs. Conference Board divergence (2024)
12. Conference Board Demographic CCI Data – PR Newswire: Generational job market differential data (September 2025)
13. eMarketer/Prosper Insights & Analytics – Coupon Usage Statistics: 26% of US adults using more coupons due to economy (July 2024)
14. Retail Customer Experience – Inflation Frustration and Coupon Use: 3 in 5 consumers seeking promotional codes when shopping online (2024)
15. Valdosta CEO / Conference Board via NRF: Demographic divides in US consumer confidence (October 2025)

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